Healthcare real estate

The asset class institutional & US capital is racing into.

Long, index-linked income. Strong-covenant operators. A structural supply shortage. Keystone puts you inside it — at a keener yield than the institutions pay.

£12bn
UK healthcare RE, 2025 forecast
£10bn
Welltower's UK care portfolio
52.5%
from overseas capital
4.5%
prime net yield, FRI-leased

Third-party sector figures — Knight Frank and company reporting, 2024–25. Sources below.

01Demographic demand

A demand wall, not a cycle.

Demand is driven by demography, not a market cycle: the core care-home population more than doubles by 2050 while the supply of beds falls further behind.

UK population aged 85+ (millions)

1.7m20223.3m20473.7m2050

The core care-home demographic more than doubles by 2050. Source: ONS / Knight Frank.

55–65,000

en-suite care-bed shortfall by end-2024 (Carterwood)

~10,000

new beds needed every year to 2030 (Savills)

88.7%

average care-home occupancy, 2025 (Knight Frank)

2033

year the elderly-care market risks hitting capacity

02Institutional capital

Capital is pouring in — and accelerating.

UK healthcare real-estate investment is forecast to more than treble its long-term average in 2025 — and over half the capital now comes from overseas, two-thirds of it from North America.

£2.36bn2022£1.2bn2023£3.2bn2024highest since 2020£12bn2025forecast£bn — UK healthcare RE investment
52.5%of demand

overseas capital into UK healthcare RE, 2024

66%of demand

of cross-border capital is North American

Welltower

US
≈ £10bn

UK portfolio — incl. Barchester £5.2bn (world's largest care-home deal), HC-One £1.2bn, Care UK

Aedifica + Cofinimmo

EU
€12.1bn

merged 2025 — world's 4th-largest healthcare REIT

Octopus Real Estate

UK
£1.8bn+

100+ purpose-built care homes, 7,000+ beds, 30+ operators

Target Healthcare REIT

UK
£930m

92 operational care homes, 34 tenants

CareTrust REIT

US
$817m

acquired Care REIT (137 homes) in 2025

Medical Properties Trust

US
£800m

Priory sale-and-leaseback

The signal. Welltower, CareTrust and Medical Properties Trust — three of America's largest REITs — are the type of institution active in this market, deploying billions into UK care homes. That weight of institutional capital is what proves the thesis. Keystone lets individual investors own a slice of the same asset class.

03Where Keystone sits

More income than residential — without the headaches.

A residential buy-to-let leaves you carrying voids, repairs, management and tenant risk. Care-home income comes on a long FRI lease where the operator carries all of it — and it still pays more. The trade-off is concentration: one operator pays the rent, and the operator could fail.

Net yields, like-for-like. The Keystone figure is a target entry yield on contracted rent under an FRI lease — not a return promise.

Residential buy-to-let (net of costs)3.60%

you carry repairs, voids, management, tenant risk

Prime care home — institutional (5A1 covenant)4.50%

FRI lease, index-linked, operator carries all costs

Care home — institutional (SPV covenant)5.75%

Keystone's target entry yield is shown to certified qualified investors. Sector figures above are third-party (Knight Frank, 2025).

04The structure

Why an FRI lease beats a normal let.

A full-repairing-and-insuring lease to a strong operator is what institutions buy. The tenant covers everything; you receive contracted FRI rent — clean, CPI-linked income under the lease.

Traditional residential letKeystone FRI lease
Repairs & maintenanceYou payOperator pays
Buildings insuranceYou payOperator pays
Voids between tenantsYour risk — no rentNone under the lease — though rent relies on the operator performing
Management & lettingsYour cost & timeFully managed operator
Lease length6–12 month tenancies25–35 year institutional lease
Rent reviewsMarket, uncertainCPI-linked, collared 2% / capped 5%
IncomeNet of all the aboveNet and contracted — reliant on the operator's covenant
05Not all care investments are equal

A genuine lease — not an “assured rent”.

Plenty of operators sell retail investors a care-suite or supported-living unit with a fixed “assured” or “guaranteed” rent for a few years. The structure is fundamentally weaker than a true institutional FRI lease — and regulators have noticed.

The “assured rent” retail model

  • A short, fixed-term rent guarantee — not a genuine long FRI lease.
  • Backed by a single, often small and unrated operator's solvency.
  • Frequently sold outside FCA regulation — no FOS or FSCS recourse if it fails.
  • Priced on a marketing figure, not an independent valuation.
  • The guarantee is only ever as good as the operator behind it.

The Keystone structure

  • A genuine 25–35 year FRI lease to a named operator with real filed Companies House accounts published in the data room before reservations open — independent of the developer on the care homes, and where a lease is to a related group operator (as at the Greenock hostel) that is disclosed as such.
  • Contracted FRI rent with CPI-linked reviews — rent the operator is contractually bound to pay, repairs and insurance included.
  • The operator's own balance sheet stands behind the rent across its whole portfolio — your income does not depend on one building performing.
  • Independent RICS Red Book valuation behind every price.
  • Deposits in SRA-regulated escrow; promoted only as the financial-promotion rules allow.
  • You own the freehold/long-leasehold title — a real asset, not a paper guarantee.

On the record. The FCA won a High Court case against a “Ponzi-like” care-room investment scheme whose promised returns “were never likely to be achievable” — ~£57m taken from ~380 investors, who were estimated to recover only around a third. That is the difference between a marketed “assured rent” and a genuine institutional lease. Our standard is the opposite: Honest price. Contracted rent. A real, independent operator. Standalone titled units. Commercial classification.

Sources
  1. 01Knight Frank, Healthcare Capital Markets 2024 & 2025 (transaction volume, yields, overseas-capital share).
  2. 02Savills, UK & European Care Home Investment 2025 and Healthcare UK Market Roundup H1 2025.
  3. 03Welltower / CareTrust REIT / Medical Properties Trust company announcements, 2024–2025.
  4. 04Target Healthcare REIT FY2025 results; Octopus Real Estate; Care REIT 2024 results.
  5. 05ONS National Population Projections (2022-based); Carterwood; LaingBuisson Care Homes UK 2025/26.
  6. 06FCA press releases & statements on unregulated / care-room investment schemes (2024–2025).

Sector figures are third-party, current to mid-2026, and describe the market — not a Keystone return. Indicative only; capital is at risk.

Speak to Keystone

Request the investor pack.

Everything a serious investor asks for, in one reply — within one business day.

  • Scheme overview & live availability

    Unit schedule, status and the build programme.

  • Lease heads of terms

    FRI structure, CPI-linked rent reviews (collared and capped), operator covenant note.

  • The compliance pack

    SRA-escrow deposit route, RICS valuation process, title structure.

  • A named contact

    One person who knows the schemes — never a call centre.

Illustrative, assumptions-based figures. The operator could fail. Resale takes time. Values can fall. Any exit is optional and market-priced: a named institutional aggregator may hold a call, you can't be forced to sell, there's no guaranteed buy-back, and open-market resale is always available. Yields and exit pricing are not guaranteed. Capital at risk. Not advice.

Talk to the Keystone team

Valuation, lease terms and live availability. No obligation; we reply within one business day.

Your details are private and never sold. Promoted only to qualified investors under s.21 FSMA. Capital is at risk.